A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
