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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.